Why age is a factor in this conclave

Media attention on potential papal candidates often seems weighted toward older cardinals, including several approaching the age of 80. There are good reasons for that, as demonstrated by recent church history.

Consider, for example, that the last two pontiffs, Francis and Benedict XVI, were 76 and 78 years old respectively when elected. Over the last 75 years, the average age of popes when elected has been close to 70, and that number has been rising.

In fact, for the past 30 years, the church has been guided by popes who were over the age of 75 – which is the normal retirement age for bishops. Catholics seem comfortable with the idea of an elderly universal pastor.

Youth may bring some obvious advantages to the office of pope, but it also brings the prospect of a very long pontificate. Saint Pope John Paul II, elected at age 58, reigned for more than 26 years. While the Polish pope was viewed by most cardinals as a great gift to the church, some believed his lengthy tenure diminished opportunities for innovation and renewal.

For whatever reasons, most popes tend to live a long time. Over the last two centuries, the average age of popes at time of death was around 80, and that average lifespan has risen to 86 for the last three popes. That, too, will be a consideration for cardinal electors in the coming conclave.

And here is where electors may be influenced by a decision by Pope Francis – the decision not to retire.

When Pope Benedict resigned in 2013 after eight years in office, many wondered whether papal retirement would become the norm. If it did, it might encourage the election of a younger pope, who could give the church his prime years and avoid a lingering pontificate.  Benedict died at the age of 95 and, had he not resigned, would have presumably lived to be the oldest pope in history.

But Francis did not retire, which had the effect of removing papal resignation as a default expectation among those who will elect his successor.

The cardinal electors themselves, it should be noted, have an average age of around 70.5 years, even with the recent addition of younger members. The non-voting cardinals – who still retain an important voice in the pre-conclave meetings – have an average age of around 85.

With all that in mind, it seems to me that the cardinals are much less likely to turn to papabili who are under the age of 65, and much more likely to look at candidates in their late 60s or, even more probable, in their 70s.

There are several who fall into that age range, of course. To name just a few:

  – Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican secretary of state and a key aide to Pope Francis. He brings decades of Vatican and diplomatic experience.

  – Spanish Cardinal Juan José Omella, archbishop of Barcelona, who just turned 79. He has been an advisor to Francis and shares the late pope’s social justice concerns.

  – Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, archbishop of Budapest, who turns 73 in June. He is seen as a conservative who as pope would prioritize careful governance and doctrinal clarity.

  – French Cardinal Jean Marc Aveline, 66, archbishop of Marseilles, a respected theologian who combines an amiable pastoral approach with strong advocacy for the poor and migrants.

  – Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, who turns 80 in June. A long shot because of his criticism of Pope Francis’ policies, he retains favor among the most conservative cardinals in the conclave.

  – Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius, bishop of Stockholm, a 75-year-old Carmelite. Although more conservative on some church issues than Pope Francis, the late pope once called him a “model of guidance” for his ability to foster dialogue.

  – Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna, 69, whose pastoral experience aligns well with Pope Francis’ missionary vision.

Others include Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech, 68, Philippines Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67, and Sri Lankan Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, 77.

Of course, age is only one element in selecting a pope, and not the most important one. But it could be a factor that tips the scales in favor of a candidate who possesses many of the other leadership qualities.

In light of the above, it’s notable that 60-year-old Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, is considered by observers to be a serious candidate for pope. Born in Italy, he has spent most of his ecclesiastical life in the Holy Land, and over the years has become a widely respected figure to the many church leaders who have passed through Jerusalem. He has shown diplomatic and leadership skills in one of the world’s most troubled areas. Among the cardinal electors, that could outweigh the fears of an extraordinarily long pontificate.