What just happened?

The unexpectedly swift election of the first American pope shocked the world, and it left many observers wondering: What just happened?

Here are a few immediate thoughts about the dynamics of this conclave.

1. In a conclave with 133 participants and fewer than two weeks to dive deeply into their leadership qualities, the process favored cardinals with wide connections and diverse experiences – in particular, pastoral ministry in more than one country or continent, administrative experience across the globe, and a career that includes work in parishes, dioceses, regional organizations and the Vatican.

Cardinal Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV, fit the bill. Born in the United States, he served as a missionary priest and then bishop in Peru (he holds both Peruvian and U.S. passports) and built good relations with the wider Latin American hierarchy. As head of the Augustinians from 2001-2013, he visited some 50 countries where the religious order works. Since 2023, as prefect of the Vatican department that helps select new bishops, he has interacted with church leaders around the globe. At the Vatican, he was also president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, so he kept up contacts with that part of the world. He participated in sessions of the Synod of Bishops, another important meeting grounds.

Some of the many cardinals who came from the church’s “periphery” to this conclave may have made wonderful popes. But I think that without these kinds of international connections and ministerial diversity, their election prospects were close to nil.

For the same reason, I believe, a man like Cardinal Pietro Parolin was destined to exit the conclave a cardinal. He is well known and respected as a diplomat and Vatican official, but has almost no pastoral experience. In the wake of Pope Francis, who saw his job as “the world’s parish priest,” that probably disqualified Parolin in the eyes of many electors.

Only a few other cardinals had the kinds of transversal connections and experiences that make one a natural papal candidate in the modern era. Spanish Cardinal Cristobal Lopez Romero, who has worked in Latin America and North Africa, for example. Or Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem.

2. Religious order candidates are attractive to the cardinal electors, who tend to trust someone who has a deep spiritual formation and has taken vows of poverty, chastity and obedience. This was true of Pope Francis, a Jesuit, who lived humbly and emphasized the church’s attention to the poor. It is likewise true of the new pope, whose Augustinian order has a tradition of prayer, rejection of privilege and service to others.

3. Language counts. Pope Leo is fluent in English, Spanish, Italian, French and Portuguese, and reads German and Latin. That made him an attractive choice as a global communicator and evangelizer. It also meant that over the years and in the run-up to the conclave, he could communicate with most of the other cardinals in their own language.

4. Finally, the brevity of this conclave demonstrates to me that the groundwork for Cardinal Prevost was laid in advance. Four ballots is not enough for a long shot candidate to win a two-thirds majority of the votes needed for election – which means Cardinal Prevost wasn’t really a long shot by the time the cardinals went into the Sistine Chapel. I think his candidacy was discussed even before the cardinals came to Rome, and a quiet lobbying campaign was quickly put into motion.

I don’t mean to suggest, of course, that Cardinal Prevost was campaigning for the papacy. But other cardinals have a perfect right to promote their favorites, and in a conclave with 133 participants, early organization is an important factor. In this case, that probably meant lining up votes from Latin America, the United States and the Roman Curia, and quietly convincing others that Cardinal Prevost would bring continuity with Pope Francis’ evangelizing vision, but without rocking the boat (as Francis sometimes did.)

The cardinals vote for "unity"

Pope Leo XIV

In selecting Cardinal Robert Prevost as the new pope, the world’s cardinals turned to a man who has been an experienced pastor in Latin America, an effective administrator of his Augustinian religious order and a quiet but authoritative advisor to the late Pope Francis.

Pope Leo XIV is the first pope from the United States, a native of Chicago, and although his name had been floated as a candidate, his election is a surprise. But his experience spans several continents – with long service in Peru and in Rome – and in that sense he has a reputation that is more international than “American.” In some ways, his career reflects the globalization of the church's ministry.

Elected twice as prior general of the Augustinian order, which has provinces and missions in 47 countries, he traveled extensively around the world.

As a cardinal, Prevost helped Francis choose the new bishops of the world, one of the most crucial jobs at the Vatican. Perhaps more important to the cardinal electors, he managed to avoid taking sides or pronouncing on many of the hot-button issues that have divided some of them during Francis’ pontificate.

I think Cardinal Prevost was elected in the hope that he will be a bridge-builder between all groups in the church.

Soon after assuming his Vatican position in 2023, he told Vatican News that the lack of unity was a “wound that the church suffers.” He said bishops in particular must work toward communion in the church. No doubt the "unity" message struck a chord with the cardinals who elected him.

I expect Pope Leo to continue the pastoral direction outlined by Francis, but in a more careful way that relies more on consensus building and less on bold initiatives. That being said, it must be remembered that every pope establishes his own identity, sometimes in surprising ways.

What I don't expect is any backtracking or undoing of the many changes that Pope Francis institutionalized, such as tougher punishments for sex abuse, tighter financial controls on Vatican departments, promotion of women to high Vatican positions, and a new role for the Synod of Bishops.

A key issue will be Pope Leo’s follow-through on “synodality” as envisioned by Francis, a process of listening and discernment involving all members of the church in decision-making. In one of his last acts, the late pope approved a three-year implementation phase for the Synod on Synodality, culminating in a major assembly at the Vatican in 2028. So presumably, that’s already on the new pope’s calendar.

As a cardinal, Prevost seemed to have supported Pope Francis’ view of evangelization as more invitational than instructional, and Francis' concept of the church as a “field hospital” that tends to people’s wounds. Cardinal Prevost was once quoted as saying that while the church worries about teaching doctrine, its first duty is to communicate the “beauty and joy of knowing Jesus.”

Pope Leo will no doubt watch his words more carefully than his predecessor, and I expect he will do fewer interviews with journalists. He comes out of the Roman Curia, which has a tradition of tight control over communication and presumes the right to edit remarks, even after the fact. But he does understand the importance of getting the church’s message out, and his fluency in five modern languages will help him.

Following the personable and much-loved Francis will be no easy task. Pope Leo is described as discreet and reserved, and his style will probably be different. But I think he, like Francis, wants to build a more open and welcoming church, a church committed to the poor, and he will bring a sure hand and managerial wisdom to that task.

Religious orders deliver conclave candidates

In the run-up to a conclave, there’s a tendency to categorize cardinals into groups or factions that aren’t very cohesive in real life, for example by continent, by language or by type of ministry.

The same can be said of a sub-category of cardinal electors that is, nevertheless, quite interesting: This conclave will include 33 cardinals who are members of religious orders. That’s 25 percent of the voting members.

The number is unusually high when compared to the last two conclaves, and it no doubt reflects Pope Francis’ criteria when selecting cardinals. Francis was a Jesuit, and he was the first religious order pope in more than 150 years.

Cardinals who belong to religious orders don’t necessarily bring the same mindset to a conclave, but they do bring some common traits. Like Francis, they have taken vows of poverty, chastity and obedience. That can translate into a simple and less privileged lifestyle when they become bishops or archbishops.

They also bring networking, in the sense that they are known figures, at least within their own religious orders. In this conclave, there are five Salesians, four Jesuits, four Franciscans and others from 15 different orders.

It’s sometimes said that such cardinals are not ideal papal candidates because their spirituality and pastoral approach are tied to the particular charism of their religious order. But that argument is not really confirmed by the church’s history. Moreover, most of the current religious order cardinals have broad governing experience in large dioceses.

A surprising number of these cardinals appear on papabili lists.

They include two Spanish Salesians: Cardinal Cristobal Lopez Romero, 72, who has years of experience in Latin America and North Africa, and as such is seen as a “three continent” candidate; and Cardinal Angel Fernandez Artime, 64, onetime head of the Salesians who now leads the Vatican department that oversees the world’s religious orders.

A third Salesian sometimes seen as an Asian papal candidate is Burmese Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, 76, the archbishop of Yangon.

The Franciscan who has drawn attention from conclave-watchers is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Italian-born Latin patriarch of Jerusalem.

Jesuits mentioned as papabili include Canadian Cardinal Michael Czerny, 78, a migration expert who has headed the Vatican’s department for human development; and Luxembourg Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, 66, a close advisor to Pope Francis.

There are others: African Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, is a member of the Capuchin order. Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius, 75, is a Carmelite. Canadian Cardinal Gerald Lacroix, 67, is a member of the Pius X Secular Institute.

Two U.S. cardinals sometimes named as papal candidates are also members of religious orders: Cardinal Joseph Tobin of Newark, 73, is a Redemptorist, and Cardinal Robert Prevost, 69, who head the Vatican department for bishops, is an Augustinian. Cardinal Prevost spent 12 years as head of the Augustinian order, and before that served for many years as a bishop in Peru.

Although too old to vote in the conclave and probably too old to be elected, Cardinal Sean O’Malley, 80, the retired archbishop of Boston and a Capuchin friar, is still on some lists of candidates. He is said to have received some votes in the last conclave.