The cardinals vote for "unity"

Pope Leo XIV

In selecting Cardinal Robert Prevost as the new pope, the world’s cardinals turned to a man who has been an experienced pastor in Latin America, an effective administrator of his Augustinian religious order and a quiet but authoritative advisor to the late Pope Francis.

Pope Leo XIV is the first pope from the United States, a native of Chicago, and although his name had been floated as a candidate, his election is a surprise. But his experience spans several continents – with long service in Peru and in Rome – and in that sense he has a reputation that is more international than “American.” In some ways, his career reflects the globalization of the church's ministry.

Elected twice as prior general of the Augustinian order, which has provinces and missions in 47 countries, he traveled extensively around the world.

As a cardinal, Prevost helped Francis choose the new bishops of the world, one of the most crucial jobs at the Vatican. Perhaps more important to the cardinal electors, he managed to avoid taking sides or pronouncing on many of the hot-button issues that have divided some of them during Francis’ pontificate.

I think Cardinal Prevost was elected in the hope that he will be a bridge-builder between all groups in the church.

Soon after assuming his Vatican position in 2023, he told Vatican News that the lack of unity was a “wound that the church suffers.” He said bishops in particular must work toward communion in the church. No doubt the "unity" message struck a chord with the cardinals who elected him.

I expect Pope Leo to continue the pastoral direction outlined by Francis, but in a more careful way that relies more on consensus building and less on bold initiatives. That being said, it must be remembered that every pope establishes his own identity, sometimes in surprising ways.

What I don't expect is any backtracking or undoing of the many changes that Pope Francis institutionalized, such as tougher punishments for sex abuse, tighter financial controls on Vatican departments, promotion of women to high Vatican positions, and a new role for the Synod of Bishops.

A key issue will be Pope Leo’s follow-through on “synodality” as envisioned by Francis, a process of listening and discernment involving all members of the church in decision-making. In one of his last acts, the late pope approved a three-year implementation phase for the Synod on Synodality, culminating in a major assembly at the Vatican in 2028. So presumably, that’s already on the new pope’s calendar.

As a cardinal, Prevost seemed to have supported Pope Francis’ view of evangelization as more invitational than instructional, and Francis' concept of the church as a “field hospital” that tends to people’s wounds. Cardinal Prevost was once quoted as saying that while the church worries about teaching doctrine, its first duty is to communicate the “beauty and joy of knowing Jesus.”

Pope Leo will no doubt watch his words more carefully than his predecessor, and I expect he will do fewer interviews with journalists. He comes out of the Roman Curia, which has a tradition of tight control over communication and presumes the right to edit remarks, even after the fact. But he does understand the importance of getting the church’s message out, and his fluency in five modern languages will help him.

Following the personable and much-loved Francis will be no easy task. Pope Leo is described as discreet and reserved, and his style will probably be different. But I think he, like Francis, wants to build a more open and welcoming church, a church committed to the poor, and he will bring a sure hand and managerial wisdom to that task.

Religious orders deliver conclave candidates

In the run-up to a conclave, there’s a tendency to categorize cardinals into groups or factions that aren’t very cohesive in real life, for example by continent, by language or by type of ministry.

The same can be said of a sub-category of cardinal electors that is, nevertheless, quite interesting: This conclave will include 33 cardinals who are members of religious orders. That’s 25 percent of the voting members.

The number is unusually high when compared to the last two conclaves, and it no doubt reflects Pope Francis’ criteria when selecting cardinals. Francis was a Jesuit, and he was the first religious order pope in more than 150 years.

Cardinals who belong to religious orders don’t necessarily bring the same mindset to a conclave, but they do bring some common traits. Like Francis, they have taken vows of poverty, chastity and obedience. That can translate into a simple and less privileged lifestyle when they become bishops or archbishops.

They also bring networking, in the sense that they are known figures, at least within their own religious orders. In this conclave, there are five Salesians, four Jesuits, four Franciscans and others from 15 different orders.

It’s sometimes said that such cardinals are not ideal papal candidates because their spirituality and pastoral approach are tied to the particular charism of their religious order. But that argument is not really confirmed by the church’s history. Moreover, most of the current religious order cardinals have broad governing experience in large dioceses.

A surprising number of these cardinals appear on papabili lists.

They include two Spanish Salesians: Cardinal Cristobal Lopez Romero, 72, who has years of experience in Latin America and North Africa, and as such is seen as a “three continent” candidate; and Cardinal Angel Fernandez Artime, 64, onetime head of the Salesians who now leads the Vatican department that oversees the world’s religious orders.

A third Salesian sometimes seen as an Asian papal candidate is Burmese Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, 76, the archbishop of Yangon.

The Franciscan who has drawn attention from conclave-watchers is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Italian-born Latin patriarch of Jerusalem.

Jesuits mentioned as papabili include Canadian Cardinal Michael Czerny, 78, a migration expert who has headed the Vatican’s department for human development; and Luxembourg Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, 66, a close advisor to Pope Francis.

There are others: African Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, is a member of the Capuchin order. Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius, 75, is a Carmelite. Canadian Cardinal Gerald Lacroix, 67, is a member of the Pius X Secular Institute.

Two U.S. cardinals sometimes named as papal candidates are also members of religious orders: Cardinal Joseph Tobin of Newark, 73, is a Redemptorist, and Cardinal Robert Prevost, 69, who head the Vatican department for bishops, is an Augustinian. Cardinal Prevost spent 12 years as head of the Augustinian order, and before that served for many years as a bishop in Peru.

Although too old to vote in the conclave and probably too old to be elected, Cardinal Sean O’Malley, 80, the retired archbishop of Boston and a Capuchin friar, is still on some lists of candidates. He is said to have received some votes in the last conclave.

Why age is a factor in this conclave

Media attention on potential papal candidates often seems weighted toward older cardinals, including several approaching the age of 80. There are good reasons for that, as demonstrated by recent church history.

Consider, for example, that the last two pontiffs, Francis and Benedict XVI, were 76 and 78 years old respectively when elected. Over the last 75 years, the average age of popes when elected has been close to 70, and that number has been rising.

In fact, for the past 30 years, the church has been guided by popes who were over the age of 75 – which is the normal retirement age for bishops. Catholics seem comfortable with the idea of an elderly universal pastor.

Youth may bring some obvious advantages to the office of pope, but it also brings the prospect of a very long pontificate. Saint Pope John Paul II, elected at age 58, reigned for more than 26 years. While the Polish pope was viewed by most cardinals as a great gift to the church, some believed his lengthy tenure diminished opportunities for innovation and renewal.

For whatever reasons, most popes tend to live a long time. Over the last two centuries, the average age of popes at time of death was around 80, and that average lifespan has risen to 86 for the last three popes. That, too, will be a consideration for cardinal electors in the coming conclave.

And here is where electors may be influenced by a decision by Pope Francis – the decision not to retire.

When Pope Benedict resigned in 2013 after eight years in office, many wondered whether papal retirement would become the norm. If it did, it might encourage the election of a younger pope, who could give the church his prime years and avoid a lingering pontificate.  Benedict died at the age of 95 and, had he not resigned, would have presumably lived to be the oldest pope in history.

But Francis did not retire, which had the effect of removing papal resignation as a default expectation among those who will elect his successor.

The cardinal electors themselves, it should be noted, have an average age of around 70.5 years, even with the recent addition of younger members. The non-voting cardinals – who still retain an important voice in the pre-conclave meetings – have an average age of around 85.

With all that in mind, it seems to me that the cardinals are much less likely to turn to papabili who are under the age of 65, and much more likely to look at candidates in their late 60s or, even more probable, in their 70s.

There are several who fall into that age range, of course. To name just a few:

  – Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican secretary of state and a key aide to Pope Francis. He brings decades of Vatican and diplomatic experience.

  – Spanish Cardinal Juan José Omella, archbishop of Barcelona, who just turned 79. He has been an advisor to Francis and shares the late pope’s social justice concerns.

  – Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, archbishop of Budapest, who turns 73 in June. He is seen as a conservative who as pope would prioritize careful governance and doctrinal clarity.

  – French Cardinal Jean Marc Aveline, 66, archbishop of Marseilles, a respected theologian who combines an amiable pastoral approach with strong advocacy for the poor and migrants.

  – Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, who turns 80 in June. A long shot because of his criticism of Pope Francis’ policies, he retains favor among the most conservative cardinals in the conclave.

  – Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius, bishop of Stockholm, a 75-year-old Carmelite. Although more conservative on some church issues than Pope Francis, the late pope once called him a “model of guidance” for his ability to foster dialogue.

  – Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna, 69, whose pastoral experience aligns well with Pope Francis’ missionary vision.

Others include Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech, 68, Philippines Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67, and Sri Lankan Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, 77.

Of course, age is only one element in selecting a pope, and not the most important one. But it could be a factor that tips the scales in favor of a candidate who possesses many of the other leadership qualities.

In light of the above, it’s notable that 60-year-old Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, is considered by observers to be a serious candidate for pope. Born in Italy, he has spent most of his ecclesiastical life in the Holy Land, and over the years has become a widely respected figure to the many church leaders who have passed through Jerusalem. He has shown diplomatic and leadership skills in one of the world’s most troubled areas. Among the cardinal electors, that could outweigh the fears of an extraordinarily long pontificate.